This site is supported by the advertisements on it, please disable your AdBlocker so we can continue to provide you with the quality content you expect.

On the business side...

Discussion in 'Fujifilm X News & Rumors' started by hyh, Jan 15, 2016.

  1. hyh

    hyh GoldMember

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    209
    Location:
    Maryland

    -Return to Top-

    CIPA suggests that this will be a bad quarter for digital cameras. ILC shipment value is flat - mirrorless is up slightly on lower volume whereas DSLR is down slightly on both units and value. Compacts are down - way down. As a consequence, overall shipment value is only about 90% of what it was back in 2017. This contrasts with more than 10% overall gain for 2017 over 2016.

    CIPA_ship_2018.png

    Based on CIPA numbers, I would expect that most companies would show a revenue loss over the same quarter the previous year (down 10% overall). Please login or register to view links.

    Note that CIPA numbers often do not match quarterly reports of Canon/Nikon/Sony/Fujifilm/Olympus as an aggregate. In the last quarter of 2017, revenue for the 5 companies as a whole showed a fairly big increase whereas I would have guessed flat revenue combined based on CIPA numbers - caveat: Panasonic and Ricoh also contributes to CIPA and their numbers are murky. It's also possible that the numbers were being calculated differently from CIPA in terms of dates, and overly rosy numbers from last quarter will be rectified by worse than expected numbers this quarter.

    Optimistic prediction would be a modest 10% revenue increase for Fujifilm Electronic Imaging at 23.2 billion yens for Jan-Mar 2018, and a revenue loss would not be surprising. We'll know soon enough.
     
  2. hyh

    hyh GoldMember

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    209
    Location:
    Maryland

    -Return to Top-

    With the release of Fujifilm annual report today, all the numbers are out for Jan-Mar 2018.

    Everyone except Sony saw revenue drop this past quarter. Fujifilm managed 20.5b yen for electronic imaging - compared to 21.1b yen the same quarter the year before. Great fiscal year for electronic imaging, but not so great quarter.

    Here's my trailing year revenue figure. Canon and Sony numbers include video.
    cameras_revenue_trailing.png

    ... and in old relative/absolute revenue format ...
    cameras_revenue.png
    As I said a few months ago, continuing high growth rate (e.g. 30-40%) was unlikely. Without sustained growth spurt, the only way they get to be #3 camera maker is if one of Canon/Nikon/Sony collapses. Unlikely. Of the 3, Nikon has the worst trend line, but future is difficult to predict.

    Next quarter prediction. Probably a small revenue loss - let's call it 21b yen for electronic imaging. Little basis - just gut feeling. Arguably optimistic.
     
  3. hyh

    hyh GoldMember

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    209
    Location:
    Maryland

    -Return to Top-

    Trailing revenue with Apr-Jun 2018 quarter results included.
    cameras_revenue_trailing.png
    Canon - down, biggest drop in absolute numbers among the 5 companies
    Fujifilm - slightly up with 22.8b yen electronic imaging revenue ... beat my guess of 21b ... I'll predict 22b for next quarter without much basis.
    Nikon - down, biggest drop in relative terms among the 5 companies
    Olympus - down
    Sony - up ... best performer again

    CIPA numbers. Notable is record mirrorless shipment in April in terms of both units and value.
    CIPA_ship_2018_2.png
     
    lawsofphysics likes this.
  4. palane

    palane Premium Member

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2016
    Messages:
    258
    Likes Received:
    66
    Location:
    East Coast Awesomstralia

    -Return to Top-

    Does it come in GRAPHite?
     
  5. hyh

    hyh GoldMember

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    209
    Location:
    Maryland

    -Return to Top-

    Last week, Canon released their quarterly report, which showed a steep 22% revenue drop for cameras. This was notable because this was the quarter where they released R mount. FWIW, they reported that their market share increased.

    Sony also released their quarterly report, and their stills & video camera revenue increased by 4%.

    Nothing yet from Nikon, Olympus and Fujifilm - their reports are due in several days. Meanwhile, CIPA reports are now complete for the quarter. This September, mirrorless shipment value for a month exceeded that of DSLR for the first time ever.

    For the quarter (July-Sept), mirrorless shipment value increased over the same quarter last year by 29%. DSLR shipment value on the other hand dropped by 25%. CIPA_ship_2018_DSLR_mir.png CIPA_ship_2018_2.png
    Total shipment value for the quarter is down by ~10% including compacts, and I would guess that the precipitous DSLR drop for Canon was substantially bigger than their gain from mirrorless (notably R mount).

    Nikon also introduced a new mirrorless mount Z. It wouldn't be surprising if Nikon also has a big revenue drop from DSLR. However, given such a big revenue drop by Canon (22%) compared to a smaller CIPA shipment value drop (~10%), it would make sense if Nikon did better in terms of revenue.

    As for Fujifilm, I'll guess a modest revenue increase. I'll raise my previous guess of 22b yen to 24b yen Electronic Imaging for 12% revenue increase.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2018
  6. hyh

    hyh GoldMember

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    890
    Likes Received:
    209
    Location:
    Maryland

    -Return to Top-

    Updated trailing revenue figures. The industry as a whole is still falling. Sony seems to be flattening. Fujifilm has been flat for about a year now. All others are dropping.
    cameras_revenue_trailing.png
    Fujifilm Electronic Imaging revenue was flat (21.4b yen -> 21.3b yen) - so I was wrong to increase my guess. My prediction for next quarter is 25b yen, which represents flat revenue again accounting for X-T3 + holidays + discounts on camera bodies & lenses.
    Nikon was down 15% - not as bad as Canon
    Olympus was down 23% - worse than Canon

    ILC market share by units so far 2018
    Canon ~ 43%
    Nikon ~ 19%
    Olympus ~ 3%

    compared to 2017
    Canon 48% claimed
    Nikon 24% extrapolated
    Olympus 4% extrapolated
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2018

Share This Page

  1. fujix-forum.com uses cookies to help personalize content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice